The EXA Way Supplement

Calculating Win Probability

Page 328

We calculate win probability using the following equation:





  • PWIN is the overall probability of winning the program
  • PRFP is the probability that the procurement authority will issue an RFP in a time frame that allows you to submit a proposal
  • PM is the probability that you will meet all mandatory requirements
  • PS is the probability that you will achieve the highest overall score (including technical, financial, and offset) among all compliant bidders
  • PC is the probability that, having issued the RFP, the procurement authority will award a resulting contract 

Very early in the pursuit, before Draft RFP release, PWIN will approximate:

PRFP =0.5

PM =0.25

PS =1/n (assume n = 5, or 0.20)

PC =0.8


Where ‘n’ is the number of viable competitors, including your team.  If there are 4 competitors total, PWIN at this point would be 2%.


You should not be alarmed by such a low PWIN because there is not enough information to calculate a reasonable value. In short, PWIN is meaningless before the Draft RFP.


Once the Draft RFP comes out, PWIN should look like something like this:

PRFP =0.8

PM =0.9

PS =1/n (assume n = 4, or 0.25)

PC =0.9


In this case, = PWIN 16%. Any PWIN over 10% should be considered advantageous. You may also adjust ‘n’ (the number of viable competitors) based on refined intelligence.


Once the final RFP comes out, PWIN would look like:

PRFP =1.0

PM =1.0

PS =1/n (assume n = 3, or 0.33)

PC =0.9

In this case, = PWIN 23%. Any PWIN over 20% should be considered advantageous. In this case, ‘n’ is not the number of all competitors, but the number of competitors that have a realistic chance of winning the contract.

***Disclaimer: The information presented in this supplement is for information purposes only. It is not intended, and may not be used, as legal or business advice. The author makes no representations of warranty, accuracy, or fit for purpose of the information herein. Use at your own risk.