### The EXA Way Supplement

#### Calculating Win Probability

##### Page 328

We calculate win probability using the following equation:

P** _{WIN} **= P

**× P**

_{RFP}**× P**

_{M}**× P**

_{S}

_{C}** **

Where:

- P
is the overall probability of winning the program_{WIN } - P
is the probability that the procurement authority will issue an RFP in a time frame that allows you to submit a proposal_{RFP } - P
is the probability that you will meet all mandatory requirements_{M } - P
is the probability that you will achieve the highest overall score (including technical, financial, and offset) among all compliant bidders_{S} - P
is the probability that, having issued the RFP, the procurement authority will award a resulting contract_{C}

Very early in the pursuit, before Draft RFP release, P** _{WIN}** will approximate:

P** _{RFP} **=0.5

P** _{M} **=0.25

P** _{S} **=1/n (assume n = 5, or 0.20)

P** _{C} **=0.8

Where ‘n’ is the number of viable competitors, including your team. If there are 4 competitors total, P** _{WIN} **at this point would be 2%.

You should not be alarmed by such a low P** _{WIN}** because there is not enough information to calculate a reasonable value. In short, P

**is meaningless before the Draft RFP.**

_{WIN}

Once the Draft RFP comes out, P** _{WIN}** should look like something like this:

P** _{RFP} **=0.8

P** _{M} **=0.9

P** _{S} **=1/n (assume n = 4, or 0.25)

P** _{C} **=0.9

In this case, = P_{WIN}_{ }16%. Any P_{WIN}_{ }over 10% should be considered advantageous. You may also adjust ‘n’ (the number of viable competitors) based on refined intelligence.

Once the final RFP comes out, P** _{WIN}** would look like:

P** _{RFP} **=1.0

P** _{M} **=1.0

P** _{S} **=1/n (assume n = 3, or 0.33)

P** _{C} **=0.9

In this case, = P** _{WIN}** 23%. Any P

**over 20% should be considered advantageous. In this case, ‘n’ is not the number of all competitors, but the number of competitors that have a realistic chance of winning the contract.**

_{WIN}

***Disclaimer: The information presented in this supplement is for information purposes only. It is not intended, and may not be used, as legal or business advice. The author makes no representations of warranty, accuracy, or fit for purpose of the information herein. Use at your own risk.